Monday, February 26, 2007

"Forever" stamps?

See this.

First of all, are we adopting stamps now?

Second, I question the utility of this idea. Supposedly, it is thought that these stamps "would help eliminate the need to purchase 2-cent stamps and also help shrink lines at the post office." There is not and never has been a need to purchase 2-cent stamps. I have a bright idea - how about: purchase 1-cent stamps! This protects you from any particular rate increase because the probability of the USPS increasing the rate by an amount which is not an integer multiple of 1.0 cents is effectively zero. And is it really that much more of a burden to put two or three 1-cent stamps on a letter instead of one 2- or 3-cent stamps? I submit, no.

In addition, I don't buy that lines will magically shrink because of these forever stamps. To begin with, I would be surprised if the purchasing of stamps accounted for more than five percent of the total customer transaction time. The majority of the transaction time consists of, as I'm sure anyone who has been in a post office would agree, sending packages. Especially when forms have not yet been filled out, or inconsiderate douchebags actually ask the teller to pack their packages for them! But beyond this low fraction of stamp-buying time, there already exist multiple methods of purchasing stamps without waiting in the normal lines: automatic stamp dispensers in (most) every post office, the APCs in many post offices now (I recommend using these for packages - very simple and fast!), and even at some ATMs, grocery stores, etc. So how, exactly, will the lines be shortened?

Failing all that, let's assume as a last argument that lines will be shortened because people won't have to buy 2-cent stamps any more. The USPS is proposing to issue stamps that can be purchased at today's rate and used tomorrow. Again, there is a simpler way: if the rate is now 41 cents, just don't return to sender letters with 39 cent stamps! See! No need to design and print a whole new set (or sets) of stamps! No need to increase the beauracracy.

Finally, there's one important assumption I make that was not clear in the article. Would the forever stamps cost the same as the current rate stamps, or more? If more, then no one would buy them (I know I wouldn't - would you?). If the same, then it doesn't seem to me to be a sensical business decision - the USPS would lose money and/or have to make the rate hikes larger, causing greater sticker shock in a society which already exhibits a bizarre overreaction to small and infrequent postage increases. And can you imagine the people that would buy and hoard vast quantities of stamps today, hoping to sell them for great profits in 10 or 20 years (or more!) when if they just put that same amount of money into bonds they would be almost guaranteed to make more money? (ebay2k50: "LOT OF 500 FOREVER 4EVER 4EVA USPS STAMPS UNCANCELLED - GREAT DEAL 4 U! NO RESERVE!")

In short: Why?Why?Why?

4 Comments:

Blogger lanyard said...

As always...

YOU ARE RIGHT!

If everybody thought about regular-life stuff as sensibly as you do, the world would be a more sensible place.

2/27/2007 2:35 PM

 
Blogger lanyard said...

Look, no foolin': you should send this, verbatim, to the U.S. Postal Service.

3/03/2007 8:43 AM

 
Blogger thrillho said...

I appreciate the vote of confidence, but I feel it would probably be a waste of e-ink to tell the USPS, and probably they have already heard the arguments anyway.

I do feel somewhat vindicated now, though, having seen the cnn.com web poll results for the question "would you hoard forever stamps?" (This was only on for less than a day, so you may not have seen it.) When I looked, about 60% of the votes were yes! Obviously this was not a scientific poll (don't get me started on the idiocy of many of the cnn.com poll questions and choices), but it can't be too far off from reality.

Incidentally, I tried to find that poll again by searching cnn.com, but found nothing. But I did wander over to another site and made a comment there: http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2006/05/the_forever_sta.html#comment-62425990 Mine's probably still the last one. I ended up with a dissertation, sort of like what's happening with this comment. Sorry!

3/06/2007 2:25 PM

 
Blogger lanyard said...

Well, excuse me if "...a society which already exhibits a bizarre overreaction to small and infrequent postage increases" is still one of my fave phrases of early 2007!

3/07/2007 9:16 AM

 

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